Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October

Union Saint-Gilloise host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Merkur Spiel-Arena (Düsseldorf). Union Saint-Gilloise are 12th in the table with 4 points from 2 games; Hapoel Be'er Sheva are 25th with 1.

Who will win Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?

The model makes Union Saint-Gilloise clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 22% and Hapoel Be'er Sheva at 15%. Megapari's 1.55 on Union Saint-Gilloise sits right on our fair price of 1.57.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Union Saint-Gilloise to win (64%) and Union Saint-Gilloise or draw (85%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Expected goals are 1.9 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.7 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 2-0 (13%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Union Saint-Gilloise and Hapoel Be'er Sheva in their last five

Union Saint-Gilloise are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 12 goals scored and 2 conceded. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Union Saint-Gilloise: last five matches

Hapoel Be'er Sheva: last five matches

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva head to head

Union Saint-Gilloise and Hapoel Be'er Sheva have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.