UPDF vs BUL prediction: Uganda Premier League, Sunday 18 October

UPDF host BUL in the Uganda Premier League on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. UPDF are 13th in the table with 5 points from 4 games; BUL are 1st with 12.

Who will win UPDF vs BUL?

There is little to separate the sides: UPDF 30%, the draw 32%, BUL 39%. At 32% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: draw (32%) and under 3.5 goals (80%).

Goals in UPDF vs BUL

The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 0.9 and 1.1, and under 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.

UPDF vs BUL correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (14%) and 0-0 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: UPDF and BUL in their last five

UPDF have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. BUL have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.

UPDF: last five matches

BUL: last five matches

UPDF vs BUL head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, UPDF won 4, BUL won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 21 April 2026, finished BUL 2–5 UPDF.

The rest of the Uganda Premier League is on our Uganda Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.