Eredivisie
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle prediction: Eredivisie, Saturday 24 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
- Utrecht
- 61%Megapari 1.61
- Draw
- 21%Megapari 4.32
- PEC Zwolle
- 18%Megapari 4.94
- Utrecht to win61% · fair 1.65Bet 1.61
- Utrecht or draw82% · fair 1.22Bet 1.18
- Over 1.5 goals81% · fair 1.23Bet 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals63% · fair 1.59Bet 1.38
- Both teams to score: yes60% · fair 1.67Bet 1.47
xG 2.2–1.1 · likeliest 2-1 (10%)
Utrecht host PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:30 EAT. The match is played at Galgenwaard (Utrecht). Utrecht are 13th in the table with 8 points from 8 games; PEC Zwolle are 17th with 4.
Who will win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
The model makes Utrecht clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 21% and PEC Zwolle at 18%. Megapari's 1.61 on Utrecht sits right on our fair price of 1.65.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Utrecht to win (61%), Utrecht or draw (82%), over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (63%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht to win Tip | 61% | 1.65 | 1.61 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 | 4.32 |
| PEC Zwolle to win | 18% | 5.50 | 4.94 |
| Utrecht or draw Tip | 82% | 1.22 | 1.18 |
| Draw or PEC Zwolle | 39% | 2.55 | 2.31 |
| Utrecht or PEC Zwolle | 79% | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 63% | 1.59 | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.69 | 2.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 60% | 1.67 | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | 2.49 | 2.50 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Goals are expected: 2.2 for Utrecht and 1.1 for PEC Zwolle, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.21 |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | 10.96 |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | 11.17 |
| 1-0 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | 13.72 |
Form: Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in their last five
Utrecht have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -7. PEC Zwolle have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Utrecht: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Willem II (home)Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Feyenoord (away)Eredivisie | 0-5 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (away)Eredivisie | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (home)Eredivisie | 3-3 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (home)Eredivisie | 1-6 | L |
PEC Zwolle: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Cambuur (home)Eredivisie | 0-1 | L |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Groningen (away)Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Feyenoord (home)Eredivisie | 0-7 | L |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (away)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | NEC (home)Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Utrecht won 3, PEC Zwolle won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 22 February 2026, finished Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Utrecht – PEC ZwolleEredivisie | 1-1 |
| 31 Aug 2025 | PEC Zwolle – UtrechtEredivisie | 0-2 |
| 1 Feb 2025 | PEC Zwolle – UtrechtEredivisie | 3-3 |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Utrecht – PEC ZwolleEredivisie | 1-0 |
| 3 Apr 2024 | Utrecht – PEC ZwolleEredivisie | 5-1 |
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on Utrecht has shortened from 1.68 to 1.61 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.40 to 1.38, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht to win | 1.68 | 1.61 ↓ |
| Draw | 4.28 | 4.32 ↑ |
| PEC Zwolle to win | 4.48 | 4.94 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.38 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.56 | 2.62 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT