Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 17 October

Valencia host Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Mestalla (Valencia). Valencia are 20th in the table with 4 points from 7 games; Athletic Bilbao are 10th with 8.

Who will win Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?

There is little to separate the sides: Valencia 31%, the draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 40%. Megapari's 2.18 on Athletic Bilbao is shorter than our fair price of 2.49: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao

Expected goals are 1.1 for Valencia and 1.1 for Athletic Bilbao, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 46%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 0-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Valencia and Athletic Bilbao in their last five

Valencia have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -8. Athletic Bilbao have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Valencia: last five matches

Athletic Bilbao: last five matches

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Valencia won 3, Athletic Bilbao won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Athletic Bilbao 0–1 Valencia.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.