Valencia vs Villarreal prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 24 October

Valencia host Villarreal in LaLiga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at Mestalla (Valencia). Valencia are 19th in the table with 5 points from 8 games; Villarreal are 11th with 8.

Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?

There is little to separate the sides: Valencia 30%, the draw 26%, Villarreal 44%. Megapari's 2.17 on Villarreal is shorter than our fair price of 2.27: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Valencia vs Villarreal

Expected goals are 1.3 for Valencia and 1.5 for Villarreal, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Valencia vs Villarreal correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Valencia and Villarreal in their last five

Valencia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. Villarreal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.

Valencia: last five matches

Villarreal: last five matches

Valencia vs Villarreal head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Valencia won 1, Villarreal won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 22 February 2026, finished Villarreal 2–1 Valencia.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Villarreal has shortened from 2.18 to 2.17 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.80 to 1.78, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.