Serie A
Venezia vs Napoli prediction: Serie A, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Venezia
Napoli
- Venezia
- 21%Megapari 4.74
- Draw
- 24%Megapari 4.22
- Napoli
- 55%Megapari 1.76
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 0.9–1.7 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Venezia host Napoli in Serie A on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Pier Luigi Penzo (Venice). Venezia are 20th in the table with 0 points from 5 games; Napoli are 9th with 7.
Who will win Venezia vs Napoli?
Napoli are favourites, though not by much: 55% to win, 24% for the draw and 21% for Venezia. Megapari's 1.76 on Napoli is shorter than our fair price of 1.82: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia to win | 21% | 4.80 | 4.74 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | 4.22 |
| Napoli to win | 55% | 1.82 | 1.76 |
| Venezia or draw | 45% | 2.22 | 2.18 |
| Draw or Napoli | 79% | 1.26 | 1.23 |
| Venezia or Napoli | 76% | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.87 | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.15 | 2.25 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.84 | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.19 | 2.13 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Venezia vs Napoli
Expected goals are 0.9 for Venezia and 1.7 for Napoli, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Venezia vs Napoli correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 (12%) and 0-2 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.33 |
| 0-1 | 11.7% | 8.56 |
| 0-2 | 10.2% | 9.84 |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | 10.36 |
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 12.95 |
Form: Venezia and Napoli in their last five
Venezia have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. Napoli have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Venezia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Lazio (home)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Fiorentina (home)Serie A | 2-4 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Frosinone (away)Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| 28 Aug 2026 | AC Milan (away)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 23 Aug 2026 | US Lecce (home)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
Napoli: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Fiorentina (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Bologna (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Arsenal (home)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Inter (away)Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Como (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Venezia vs Napoli head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Venezia won none, Napoli won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 16 March 2025, finished Venezia 0–0 Napoli.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 2025 | Venezia – NapoliSerie A | 0-0 |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Napoli – VeneziaSerie A | 1-0 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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