UEFA Champions League
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 20 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
VfB Stuttgart host Atlético Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at MHP Arena (Stuttgart). VfB Stuttgart are 4th in the table with 6 points from 2 games; Atlético Madrid are 15th with 3.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
There is little to separate the sides: VfB Stuttgart 37%, the draw 25%, Atlético Madrid 38%. Megapari's 2.32 on Atlético Madrid is shorter than our fair price of 2.60: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%), over 2.5 goals (60%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to win | 37% | 2.70 | 3.01 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | 3.96 |
| Atlético Madrid to win | 38% | 2.60 | 2.32 |
| VfB Stuttgart or draw | 62% | 1.63 | 1.68 |
| Draw or Atlético Madrid | 63% | 1.59 | 1.44 |
| VfB Stuttgart or Atlético Madrid | 75% | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.51 | 2.40 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 | 1.67 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 62% | 1.62 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | 2.60 | 2.62 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 15 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid
Goals are expected: 1.7 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.5 for Atlético Madrid, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.25 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.44 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 15.04 |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 15.62 |
Form: VfB Stuttgart and Atlético Madrid in their last five
VfB Stuttgart have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Atlético Madrid have won all of their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 2. The results cover every competition in our data.
VfB Stuttgart: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Paderborn 07 (away)Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Borussia Dortmund (home)Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim (away)Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Viking (home)UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
Atlético Madrid: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Man United (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Deportivo Alavés (away)LaLiga | 2-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid (home)LaLiga | 2-1 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | CA Osasuna (home)LaLiga | 4-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad (away)LaLiga | 3-0 | W |
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid head to head
VfB Stuttgart and Atlético Madrid have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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