Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart vs Gladbach prediction: Bundesliga, Friday 23 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
VfB Stuttgart
Gladbach
- VfB Stuttgart
- 70%Megapari 1.43
- Draw
- 17%Megapari 5.80
- Gladbach
- 13%Megapari 6.98
- VfB Stuttgart to win70% · fair 1.43Bet 1.43
- VfB Stuttgart or draw87% · fair 1.16Bet 1.12
- Over 1.5 goals84% · fair 1.19Bet 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals69% · fair 1.45Bet 1.25
- Both teams to score: yes61% · fair 1.64Bet 1.43
xG 2.6–1.1 · likeliest 2-1 (9%)
VfB Stuttgart host Gladbach in the Bundesliga on Friday 23 October, kick-off 21:30 EAT. The match is played at MHP Arena (Stuttgart). VfB Stuttgart are 11th in the table with 6 points from 5 games; Gladbach are 18th with 0.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Gladbach?
The model makes VfB Stuttgart clear favourites at 70%, with the draw at 17% and Gladbach at 13%. Megapari's 1.43 on VfB Stuttgart sits right on our fair price of 1.43.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: VfB Stuttgart to win (70%), VfB Stuttgart or draw (87%), over 1.5 goals (84%), over 2.5 goals (69%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to win Tip | 70% | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.95 | 5.80 |
| Gladbach to win | 13% | 7.45 | 6.98 |
| VfB Stuttgart or draw Tip | 87% | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Draw or Gladbach | 30% | 3.31 | 3.07 |
| VfB Stuttgart or Gladbach | 83% | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 84% | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 69% | 1.45 | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.23 | 3.48 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | 2.21 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.57 | 2.66 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in VfB Stuttgart vs Gladbach
Goals are expected: 2.6 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.1 for Gladbach, 3.7 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
VfB Stuttgart vs Gladbach correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 2-0 (9%) and 3-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.94 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | 12.45 |
| 3-0 | 7.5% | 13.25 |
| 1-1 | 7.2% | 13.85 |
Form: VfB Stuttgart and Gladbach in their last five
VfB Stuttgart have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Gladbach have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 7 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
VfB Stuttgart: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Paderborn 07 (away)Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Borussia Dortmund (home)Bundesliga | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim (away)Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Viking (home)UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
Gladbach: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | Köln (away)Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Mainz (home)Bundesliga | 3-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Freiburg (away)Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (home)Bundesliga | 3-4 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | RB Leipzig (away)Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
VfB Stuttgart vs Gladbach head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, VfB Stuttgart won 4, Gladbach won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 25 January 2026, finished Gladbach 0–3 VfB Stuttgart.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Gladbach – VfB StuttgartBundesliga | 0-3 |
| 30 Aug 2025 | VfB Stuttgart – GladbachBundesliga | 1-0 |
| 1 Feb 2025 | VfB Stuttgart – GladbachBundesliga | 1-2 |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Gladbach – VfB StuttgartBundesliga | 1-3 |
| 18 May 2024 | VfB Stuttgart – GladbachBundesliga | 4-0 |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Gladbach – VfB StuttgartBundesliga | 3-1 |
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on VfB Stuttgart has shortened from 1.47 to 1.43 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.30 to 1.25, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart to win | 1.47 | 1.43 ↓ |
| Draw | 5.33 | 5.80 ↑ |
| Gladbach to win | 6.86 | 6.98 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.25 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.48 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.45 | 1.43 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.60 | 2.66 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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