Villa vs Mbarara City prediction: Uganda Premier League, Thursday 22 October

Villa host Mbarara City in the Uganda Premier League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. Villa are 1st in the table with 14 points from 6 games; Mbarara City are 13th with 5.

Who will win Villa vs Mbarara City?

The model makes Villa clear favourites at 80%, with the draw at 15% and Mbarara City at 5%.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Villa to win (80%) and Villa or draw (95%).

Goals in Villa vs Mbarara City

Expected goals are 2.3 for Villa and 0.4 for Mbarara City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 43%.

Villa vs Mbarara City correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 17%, ahead of 1-0 (15%) and 3-0 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: Villa and Mbarara City in their last five

Villa are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 13 goals scored and 2 conceded. Mbarara City have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Villa: last five matches

Mbarara City: last five matches

Villa vs Mbarara City head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Villa won 5, Mbarara City won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 13 May 2026, finished Mbarara City 1–3 Villa.

The rest of the Uganda Premier League is on our Uganda Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.