LaLiga
Villarreal vs Elche prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Villarreal
Elche
- Villarreal
- 65%Megapari 1.51
- Draw
- 20%Megapari 4.88
- Elche
- 16%Megapari 6.73
- Villarreal to win65% · fair 1.55Bet 1.51
- Villarreal or draw84% · fair 1.19Bet 1.14
- Over 1.5 goals83% · fair 1.21Bet 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals63% · fair 1.58Bet 1.43
- Both teams to score: yes58% · fair 1.71Bet 1.58
xG 2.4–1.1 · likeliest 2-1 (10%)
Villarreal host Elche in LaLiga on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 17:15 EAT. The match is played at Ceramica (Villarreal). Villarreal are 9th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Elche are 18th with 5.
Who will win Villarreal vs Elche?
The model makes Villarreal clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 20% and Elche at 16%. Megapari's 1.51 on Villarreal sits right on our fair price of 1.55.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Villarreal to win (65%), Villarreal or draw (84%), over 1.5 goals (83%), over 2.5 goals (63%) and both teams to score: yes (58%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal to win Tip | 65% | 1.55 | 1.51 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.09 | 4.88 |
| Elche to win | 16% | 6.38 | 6.73 |
| Villarreal or draw Tip | 84% | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Draw or Elche | 35% | 2.83 | 2.75 |
| Villarreal or Elche | 80% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 83% | 1.21 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 63% | 1.58 | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.74 | 2.58 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | 1.75 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 58% | 1.71 | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.40 | 2.26 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Villarreal vs Elche
Goals are expected: 2.4 for Villarreal and 1.1 for Elche, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.
Villarreal vs Elche correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (8%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.47 |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | 11.96 |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | 12.06 |
| 3-1 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 15.02 |
Form: Villarreal and Elche in their last five
Villarreal have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Elche have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Villarreal: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Levante UD (home)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Malaga (away)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Real Betis (home)LaLiga | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Borussia Dortmund (away)UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Deportivo de A Coruna (home)LaLiga | 2-3 | L |
Elche: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Espanyol (away)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid (home)LaLiga | 2-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Athletic Bilbao (away)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad (home)LaLiga | 2-3 | L |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Racing de Santander (away)LaLiga | 2-3 | L |
Villarreal vs Elche head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Villarreal won 2, Elche won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 8 March 2026, finished Villarreal 2–1 Elche.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Villarreal – ElcheLaLiga | 2-1 |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Elche – VillarrealLaLiga | 1-3 |
The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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