Vitória de Guimarães vs Marítimo prediction: Primeira Liga, Friday 23 October

Vitória de Guimarães host Marítimo in Primeira Liga on Friday 23 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Dom Afonso Henriques (Guimaraes). Vitória de Guimarães are 15th in the table with 5 points from 8 games; Marítimo are 11th with 8.

Who will win Vitória de Guimarães vs Marítimo?

Vitória de Guimarães are favourites, though not by much: 51% to win, 26% for the draw and 24% for Marítimo. Megapari's 1.54 on Vitória de Guimarães is shorter than our fair price of 1.98: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Vitória de Guimarães vs Marítimo

Expected goals are 1.3 for Vitória de Guimarães and 1.2 for Marítimo, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 50%.

Vitória de Guimarães vs Marítimo correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Vitória de Guimarães and Marítimo in their last five

Vitória de Guimarães have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 2 in that run. Marítimo have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Vitória de Guimarães: last five matches

Marítimo: last five matches

Vitória de Guimarães vs Marítimo head to head

Vitória de Guimarães and Marítimo have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Vitória de Guimarães has shortened from 1.75 to 1.54 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.05 to 1.94, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.