EFL Championship
Watford vs Charlton Athletic prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Watford
Charlton Athletic
- Watford
- 44%Megapari 2.04
- Draw
- 29%Megapari 3.35
- Charlton Athletic
- 27%Megapari 3.46
- Under 3.5 goals80% · fair 1.25
xG 1.2–0.9 · likeliest 1-0 (15%)
Watford host Charlton Athletic in the EFL Championship on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT.
Who will win Watford vs Charlton Athletic?
There is little to separate the sides: Watford 44%, the draw 29%, Charlton Athletic 27%. At 29% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.04 on Watford is shorter than our fair price of 2.30: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford to win | 44% | 2.30 | 2.04 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | 3.35 |
| Charlton Athletic to win | 27% | 3.71 | 3.46 |
| Watford or draw | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Draw or Charlton Athletic | 56% | 1.77 | – |
| Watford or Charlton Athletic | 71% | 1.42 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.44 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | 1.91 | – |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Watford vs Charlton Athletic
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 1.2 and 0.9, and under 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.
Watford vs Charlton Athletic correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 15%, ahead of 1-1 (14%) and 0-0 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.6% | 6.85 |
| 1-1 | 13.8% | 7.24 |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | 7.35 |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 9.13 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.44 |
Form: Watford and Charlton Athletic in their last five
Watford have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Charlton Athletic have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 2 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Watford: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Preston North End (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (away)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
Charlton Athletic: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (away)EFL Championship | 1-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Portsmouth (home)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Queens Park Rangers (home)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (away)EFL Championship | 0-4 | L |
| 2 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Watford vs Charlton Athletic head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Watford won none, Charlton Athletic won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 6 April 2026, finished Watford 1–1 Charlton Athletic.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Watford – Charlton AthleticEFL Championship | 1-1 |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Charlton Athletic – WatfordEFL Championship | 1-0 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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