EFL Championship
West Ham vs Southampton prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 24 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
West Ham host Southampton in the EFL Championship on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Who will win West Ham vs Southampton?
West Ham are favourites, though not by much: 56% to win, 21% for the draw and 23% for Southampton. Megapari's 1.64 on West Ham is shorter than our fair price of 1.80: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: West Ham to win (56%), over 1.5 goals (83%), over 2.5 goals (64%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham to win Tip | 56% | 1.80 | 1.64 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.66 | 4.33 |
| Southampton to win | 23% | 4.35 | 4.40 |
| West Ham or draw | 77% | 1.30 | 1.18 |
| Draw or Southampton | 44% | 2.25 | 2.20 |
| West Ham or Southampton | 79% | 1.27 | 1.19 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 64% | 1.55 | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.81 | 2.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.71 | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 62% | 1.61 | 1.45 |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | 2.63 | 2.56 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in West Ham vs Southampton
Goals are expected: 2.2 for West Ham and 1.4 for Southampton, 3.6 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.
West Ham vs Southampton correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 3-1 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.83 |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | 11.24 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 15.08 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 15.43 |
Form: West Ham and Southampton in their last five
West Ham are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 18 goals scored and 6 conceded. Southampton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
West Ham: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Millwall (away)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (home)EFL Championship | 6-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (away)EFL Championship | 3-2 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Derby County (home)EFL Championship | 3-0 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Wolves (home)EFL Championship | 4-2 | W |
Southampton: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (home)EFL Championship | 4-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Lincoln City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
West Ham vs Southampton head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, West Ham won 1, Southampton won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 19 April 2025, finished West Ham 1–1 Southampton.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2025 | West Ham – SouthamptonPremier League | 1-1 |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Southampton – West HamPremier League | 0-1 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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