EFL Championship
Wolves vs Watford prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 24 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Wolves host Watford in the EFL Championship on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Who will win Wolves vs Watford?
The model makes Wolves clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 21% and Watford at 15%. Megapari's 1.36 on Wolves is shorter than our fair price of 1.57: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Wolves to win (64%) and Wolves or draw (85%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves to win Tip | 64% | 1.57 | 1.36 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 | 4.95 |
| Watford to win | 15% | 6.74 | 7.55 |
| Wolves or draw Tip | 85% | 1.17 | 1.06 |
| Draw or Watford | 36% | 2.77 | 3.00 |
| Wolves or Watford | 79% | 1.27 | 1.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | 2.35 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | 1.49 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.93 | 1.77 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.08 | 1.95 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Wolves vs Watford
Expected goals are 1.8 for Wolves and 0.9 for Watford, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Wolves vs Watford correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 1-1 (11%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.87 |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.89 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.25 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
Form: Wolves and Watford in their last five
Wolves have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Watford have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Wolves: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | West Ham (away)EFL Championship | 2-4 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 4-1 | W |
Watford: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Preston North End (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (away)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
Wolves vs Watford head to head
Wolves and Watford have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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