Eredivisie predictions: the Dutch fixtures for the week, the table and the model's goals tips
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Eredivisie fixtures in the next seven days
Friday 23 October
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Go Ahead EaglesTelstar xG 1.8–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (11%)154%1.59X23%4.22223%5.30O2.562%1.37GG61%1.46
Saturday 24 October
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UtrechtPEC Zwolle xG 2.2–1.1 · likeliest 2-1 (10%)159%1.66X22%4.22219%4.64O2.562%1.40GG60%1.47
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Willem IICambuur xG 1.3–1.2 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)137%2.56X27%3.72236%2.54O2.556%1.44GG59%1.41Both teams to score: Yes59% · fair 1.69Bet 1.41
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ADO Den HaagHeerenveen xG 1.3–1.5 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)131%3.20X26%3.86244%2.08O2.559%1.38GG61%1.37Both teams to score: Yes61% · fair 1.64Bet 1.37
Sunday 25 October
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Fortuna SittardSBV Excelsior xG 1.7–1.5 · likeliest 1-1 (11%)140%2.48X25%3.66235%2.66O2.559%1.48GG61%1.44
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PSV EindhovenFeyenoord xG 2.5–1.7 · likeliest 2-1 (8%)152%1.98X21%4.22228%3.20O2.572%1.24GG69%1.27
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NECGroningen xG 1.8–1.5 · likeliest 1-1 (10%)143%2.33X24%3.84233%2.74O2.562%1.41GG63%1.39
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Sparta RotterdamAjax xG 1.2–2.3 · likeliest 1-2 (10%)118%5.30X20%4.84262%1.52O2.567%1.28GG62%1.41
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AZTwente xG 1.5–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)141%2.21X25%3.82234%2.96O2.559%1.41GG61%1.40Both teams to score: Yes61% · fair 1.64Bet 1.40
Odds: Megapari, as of 19 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
The Eredivisie is the league many bettors open when they want goals, and the numbers back the habit. Eighteen clubs play 34 rounds, the top of the table is usually far stronger than the bottom, and matches open up more than in most of Europe. This page gathers the Dutch top flight in one place: every fixture of the next seven days with home, draw and away probabilities, the current table, and the result, goals and both-teams-to-score tips that cleared the model's thresholds for Eredivisie matches only.
A league built for goals markets
In the results the model is fitted on, Eredivisie matches have averaged a little over three goals each across the last three seasons, about level with the Bundesliga and more than the Premier League, and fewer than two Dutch matches in five have finished with two goals or fewer. The model reads that through the league's own scoring level, so a Dutch fixture between two ordinary sides starts from a higher expected total than the same pairing would in Spain or Italy. That is why the over 2.5 and GG tables below are usually fuller than the result table, and why under tips here are scarce.
High-scoring leagues are also where a raw goals model gets carried away, so the over and under numbers are calibrated before they are published. The over 2.5 predictions page explains that correction.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 | DWWWW |
| 2 | AZ | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 | WDWLD |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 | WWLWL |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 | WWWDL |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 | WLWDD |
| 7 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | DDWWL |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | DLDLW |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 10 | SBV Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 11 | Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 | LDWWW |
| 12 | NEC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 | DLDDD |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 | LDLDW |
| 14 | Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 | DWDWD |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 | LLDDW |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 | DLLLL |
Big clubs, wide gaps
Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord have dominated the Dutch title race for decades, and the gap between them and the clubs in the bottom half is wide. You see it in the fixtures table: a leading club often carries a probability above 55% even away from home. Lower down, two mid-table sides can produce something close to a three-way split. Dutch clubs also play in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League most seasons, and those matches tie their ratings to the rest of Europe.
Eredivisie match result tips for the week
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Utrecht to win59%fair 1.70
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Ajax to win62%fair 1.61
Odds: Megapari, as of 19 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Eredivisie over and under 2.5 goals tips
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Over 2.562%fair 1.61
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Over 2.562%fair 1.60
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Over 2.572%fair 1.39
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Over 2.562%fair 1.61
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Over 2.567%fair 1.50
Odds: Megapari, as of 19 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Eredivisie both teams to score tips
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Both teams to score: Yes61%fair 1.65
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Both teams to score: Yes60%fair 1.67
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Both teams to score: Yes59%fair 1.69
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Both teams to score: Yes61%fair 1.64
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Both teams to score: Yes61%fair 1.64
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Both teams to score: Yes69%fair 1.45
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Both teams to score: Yes63%fair 1.59
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Both teams to score: Yes62%fair 1.61
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Both teams to score: Yes61%fair 1.64
Odds: Megapari, as of 19 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Most likely Eredivisie correct scores
| Kick-off | Match | Correct score | Expected goals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles – TelstarEredivisie | 1-1 (10.6%)2-1 9.4% · 1-0 7.1% | 1.8 – 1.4 | – | |
| Utrecht – PEC ZwolleEredivisie | 2-1 (9.8%)1-1 9.3% · 2-0 8.6% | 2.2 – 1.1 | – | |
| Willem II – CambuurEredivisie | 1-1 (13.3%)1-0 9.8% · 0-1 9.6% | 1.3 – 1.2 | – | |
| ADO Den Haag – HeerenveenEredivisie | 1-1 (12.6%)0-1 9.1% · 1-2 8.9% | 1.3 – 1.5 | – | |
| Fortuna Sittard – SBV ExcelsiorEredivisie | 1-1 (11.1%)2-1 8.9% · 1-2 7.8% | 1.7 – 1.5 | – | |
| PSV Eindhoven – FeyenoordEredivisie | 2-1 (7.8%)2-2 6.7% · 3-1 6.6% | 2.5 – 1.7 | – | |
| NEC – GroningenEredivisie | 1-1 (10.2%)2-1 8.9% · 1-2 7.4% | 1.8 – 1.5 | – | |
| Sparta Rotterdam – AjaxEredivisie | 1-2 (9.5%)1-1 8.5% · 0-2 7.8% | 1.2 – 2.3 | – | |
| AZ – TwenteEredivisie | 1-1 (12.2%)2-1 8.6% · 1-2 8.1% | 1.5 – 1.4 | – |
What the ratings miss in the Netherlands
Dutch clubs sell their best players more often than most, and a club that lost its striker in the window is still rated on the goals he scored for a few weeks. Add the usual blind spots, European travel in midweek, rotation and team news, and the probabilities are a starting point rather than the last word.
How to read this page
Every figure comes from the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model set out on the methodology page, blended half and half with the bookmaker's prices where odds are available. Fair odds are one divided by the probability. The leagues page lists every competition we price, and the weekend prediction page puts this round beside the others.
Any bet can lose, and a goals tip in a high-scoring league still dies on a 1-0. Bet only if you are 18+ and only with money you can spare; our responsible gambling page explains how to set limits.
Settled record for the last 30 days, all leagues
- Tips
- 1731
- Won
- 1279
- Lost
- 452
- Hit rate
- 74%
| Market | Tips | Won | Hit rate | Profit at listed odds (1 unit stakes) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 343 | 227 | 66% | -2.63 |
| Double chance | 292 | 263 | 90% | – |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals | 306 | 254 | 83% | -26.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals | 248 | 162 | 65% | – |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 269 | 211 | 78% | – |
| Both teams to score | 273 | 162 | 59% | -38.98 |
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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Frequently asked questions
Where do I find the Eredivisie table?
Directly under the fixtures on this page. It is the current Dutch top-flight standings with points, goal difference and recent form, and it updates with the site's data four times a day, so a Sunday result is in the table the same evening.
How far ahead are the Eredivisie fixtures priced?
Seven days. Every Dutch league match in that window is listed with its home, draw and away probabilities as soon as it is in our data, so the weekend round is visible from early in the week and gets sharper as results and odds come in.
Why do Dutch Eredivisie predictions lean towards goals?
Because the league scores a lot. In the results the model is fitted on, Eredivisie matches have averaged a little over three goals across the last three seasons, about level with the Bundesliga. A higher scoring level pushes more fixtures past the 60% needed for over 2.5 and the 58% needed for GG.
Why are there no Eredivisie tips this week?
Either there is no round in the next seven days, which happens during international breaks, or no market in the round cleared its threshold. The tables only show what passed the bar, and an empty table is the honest answer on those weeks.
What time do Eredivisie matches kick off in East Africa?
The Netherlands is one hour behind EAT during European summer time and two hours behind in winter, so a 20:00 Dutch kick-off is 21:00 or 22:00 EAT. Nigeria is two hours behind EAT and Ghana three. The site converts every kick-off to your local time.
Is the Dutch second division covered too?
Yes, the Eerste Divisie is in our data and its tips appear on the daily pages alongside every other league, though it has no page of its own. Having it in the data is also why a newly promoted club reaches the Eredivisie with rated results behind it.