League table predictions: the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1, each season played 10,000 times
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Premier League table prediction
| # | Team | Pts | Projected pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated | Likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 18 | 83 | 56% | 99% | – | 1–3 |
| 2 | Man City | 21 | 80 | 35% | 96% | – | 1–4 |
| 3 | Brighton | 16 | 70 | 7% | 74% | <1% | 2–6 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 12 | 64 | 1% | 43% | <1% | 3–9 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 13 | 61 | 1% | 30% | <1% | 3–11 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 8 | 58 | <1% | 18% | 1% | 4–12 |
| 7 | Brentford | 10 | 55 | <1% | 12% | 1% | 4–14 |
| 8 | Leeds | 10 | 54 | <1% | 9% | 2% | 5–14 |
| 9 | Man United | 7 | 53 | <1% | 7% | 3% | 5–15 |
| 10 | Newcastle | 8 | 50 | <1% | 4% | 6% | 6–16 |
| 11 | Bournemouth | 6 | 50 | <1% | 3% | 6% | 6–16 |
| 12 | Everton | 10 | 48 | <1% | 2% | 8% | 7–17 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 46 | <1% | 1% | 12% | 7–18 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 44 | – | <1% | 20% | 9–19 |
| 15 | Tottenham | 6 | 43 | – | 1% | 20% | 9–19 |
| 16 | Fulham | 5 | 41 | – | <1% | 30% | 10–19 |
| 17 | Coventry City | 6 | 39 | – | <1% | 38% | 11–20 |
| 18 | Ipswich Town | 9 | 39 | – | <1% | 41% | 11–20 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 4 | 36 | – | – | 54% | 13–20 |
| 20 | Hull City | 9 | 35 | – | – | 58% | 13–20 |
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the model's ratings, starting from the current table (70 of 380 matches played). Each simulated season also varies every club's strength a little, because ratings are never exact. Relegated means finishing in the bottom 3. Ties are split by goal difference and then goals scored; head-to-head rules are not modelled. Likely finish is the range of places a club ends up in 80% of the simulations.
A league table prediction answers a different question from a match tip. Instead of who wins on Saturday, it asks where every club finishes when the season ends. Each table below starts from the current standings of one of Europe's big five leagues, plays every remaining fixture 10,000 times with the model's ratings, and reports how often each club ends up champion, in the top four or relegated. What you get is a set of chances, not one predicted table.
How the simulation works
Every remaining fixture gets two expected-goals figures from the same attack and defence ratings that price the match tips. One simulated season draws a score for each of those fixtures, adds the points to the real table and ranks the clubs. Before each run, every club's strength is nudged up or down a little at random, because no rating is exact; without that, a two-point lead in October would look far safer than it is. Ties on points are split by goal difference, then goals scored; the head-to-head rules some leagues use are not modelled.
Projected points is the average across all the simulated seasons. Title, top four and relegated are the share of seasons in which a club finished there. Likely finish is the range of places it lands in eight seasons out of ten.
Comparing five title races
Side by side, the five races are easy to compare. Three readings are worth making after each round:
- How open is the title? Look at the leader's title chance and the gap to the second club. A leader under 50% means the model sees a real race; a leader far above it means everyone else needs results the model does not expect.
- Projected points against title chance. Averages squeeze the gaps, so two clubs a few projected points apart can have very different title chances. Read the title column, not the order of the rows.
- The width of the likely finish range. The ranges narrow as fewer points remain to be won.
La Liga table prediction
| # | Team | Pts | Projected pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated | Likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 27 | 95 | 85% | >99% | – | 1–2 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 21 | 83 | 12% | 99% | – | 1–3 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 22 | 78 | 3% | 96% | – | 2–4 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 19 | 66 | <1% | 59% | <1% | 3–7 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 16 | 57 | – | 15% | <1% | 4–12 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 9 | 56 | – | 12% | 1% | 4–12 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 53 | – | 6% | 2% | 5–14 |
| 8 | Sevilla | 14 | 51 | – | 3% | 3% | 5–15 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 50 | – | 3% | 3% | 6–15 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 50 | – | 3% | 4% | 6–16 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 11 | 48 | – | 1% | 6% | 6–17 |
| 12 | Levante UD | 7 | 44 | – | 1% | 17% | 8–18 |
| 13 | CA Osasuna | 11 | 44 | – | <1% | 16% | 8–18 |
| 14 | Elche | 7 | 43 | – | <1% | 18% | 8–19 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 8 | 42 | – | <1% | 20% | 9–19 |
| 16 | Getafe | 9 | 42 | – | <1% | 21% | 9–19 |
| 17 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 11 | 41 | – | <1% | 25% | 9–19 |
| 18 | Valencia | 6 | 39 | – | <1% | 33% | 10–19 |
| 19 | Racing de Santander | 8 | 36 | – | <1% | 56% | 13–20 |
| 20 | Malaga | 4 | 32 | – | <1% | 74% | 15–20 |
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the model's ratings, starting from the current table (88 of 380 matches played). Each simulated season also varies every club's strength a little, because ratings are never exact. Relegated means finishing in the bottom 3. Ties are split by goal difference and then goals scored; head-to-head rules are not modelled. Likely finish is the range of places a club ends up in 80% of the simulations.
Serie A table prediction
| # | Team | Pts | Projected pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated | Likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 19 | 84 | 63% | 97% | – | 1–3 |
| 2 | Roma | 17 | 77 | 21% | 86% | – | 1–5 |
| 3 | Como | 14 | 70 | 6% | 58% | – | 2–7 |
| 4 | Lazio | 19 | 68 | 4% | 45% | – | 2–8 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 15 | 68 | 3% | 44% | – | 2–8 |
| 6 | Juventus | 11 | 65 | 2% | 34% | <1% | 3–9 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 9 | 61 | 1% | 18% | <1% | 4–10 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 61 | <1% | 16% | <1% | 4–10 |
| 9 | Bologna | 5 | 49 | – | 1% | 4% | 8–16 |
| 10 | Frosinone | 13 | 48 | – | 1% | 5% | 8–16 |
| 11 | Cagliari | 13 | 47 | – | 1% | 6% | 8–17 |
| 12 | Torino | 10 | 46 | <1% | <1% | 8% | 8–17 |
| 13 | US Sassuolo | 8 | 46 | – | <1% | 9% | 8–17 |
| 14 | Fiorentina | 4 | 42 | – | <1% | 18% | 10–19 |
| 15 | Udinese | 4 | 39 | – | <1% | 31% | 11–19 |
| 16 | Monza | 7 | 38 | – | <1% | 34% | 11–20 |
| 17 | US Lecce | 9 | 38 | – | – | 36% | 12–20 |
| 18 | Genoa CFC | 4 | 37 | – | – | 40% | 12–20 |
| 19 | Venezia | 3 | 37 | – | <1% | 43% | 12–20 |
| 20 | Parma | 4 | 32 | – | – | 67% | 14–20 |
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the model's ratings, starting from the current table (70 of 380 matches played). Each simulated season also varies every club's strength a little, because ratings are never exact. Relegated means finishing in the bottom 3. Ties are split by goal difference and then goals scored; head-to-head rules are not modelled. Likely finish is the range of places a club ends up in 80% of the simulations.
Relegation: three places or two
The three 20-club leagues, the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A, send their bottom three down, and that is what the relegated column counts. The Bundesliga and Ligue 1 have 18 clubs, and their relegated column counts only the bottom two: the club finishing 16th goes into a play-off that the simulation does not play. A club sitting 16th in either league can show a modest relegation chance and still be in real danger.
The top-four column is a fixed line in every league. How many of those places lead into the Champions League depends on each season's European rules, which the simulation leaves out.
Bundesliga table prediction
| # | Team | Pts | Projected pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated | Likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 14 | 83 | 92% | >99% | – | 1 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 14 | 67 | 4% | 87% | – | 2–5 |
| 3 | Leverkusen | 13 | 66 | 3% | 86% | – | 2–5 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 56 | <1% | 36% | <1% | 3–9 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 13 | 55 | <1% | 34% | <1% | 3–9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 55 | <1% | 33% | <1% | 3–9 |
| 7 | Mainz | 10 | 48 | – | 9% | 1% | 5–13 |
| 8 | SV 07 Elversberg | 10 | 45 | – | 4% | 2% | 6–14 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 8 | 45 | – | 4% | 3% | 6–15 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 44 | – | 3% | 4% | 6–15 |
| 11 | SV Werder Bremen | 9 | 41 | – | 1% | 7% | 7–16 |
| 12 | TSG Hoffenheim | 6 | 41 | – | 1% | 8% | 7–16 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 40 | – | 1% | 9% | 7–16 |
| 14 | Köln | 7 | 36 | – | <1% | 21% | 9–17 |
| 15 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 35 | – | <1% | 25% | 10–18 |
| 16 | Paderborn 07 | 5 | 34 | – | <1% | 28% | 10–18 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 5 | 33 | – | <1% | 36% | 11–18 |
| 18 | Gladbach | 0 | 29 | – | <1% | 57% | 13–18 |
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the model's ratings, starting from the current table (54 of 306 matches played). Each simulated season also varies every club's strength a little, because ratings are never exact. Relegated means finishing in the bottom 2. Ties are split by goal difference and then goals scored; head-to-head rules are not modelled. Likely finish is the range of places a club ends up in 80% of the simulations.
Ligue 1 table prediction
| # | Team | Pts | Projected pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegated | Likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 14 | 76 | 87% | >99% | – | 1–2 |
| 2 | Monaco | 14 | 60 | 4% | 62% | – | 2–8 |
| 3 | Lyon | 14 | 60 | 4% | 61% | – | 2–8 |
| 4 | Lille | 14 | 56 | 1% | 41% | <1% | 2–10 |
| 5 | Lens | 10 | 55 | 1% | 38% | <1% | 2–10 |
| 6 | Rennes | 13 | 53 | 1% | 28% | <1% | 3–11 |
| 7 | Marseille | 9 | 52 | 1% | 25% | <1% | 3–12 |
| 8 | Paris | 14 | 52 | <1% | 19% | <1% | 3–12 |
| 9 | Strasbourg | 7 | 47 | <1% | 8% | 1% | 5–14 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 9 | 47 | <1% | 8% | 1% | 5–14 |
| 11 | Lorient | 11 | 46 | <1% | 6% | 1% | 5–14 |
| 12 | Brest | 9 | 43 | <1% | 3% | 3% | 7–15 |
| 13 | AJ Auxerre | 9 | 40 | <1% | 1% | 8% | 9–16 |
| 14 | Nice | 8 | 37 | – | <1% | 14% | 10–17 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 6 | 36 | – | <1% | 17% | 10–17 |
| 16 | Angers SCO | 7 | 30 | – | – | 47% | 13–18 |
| 17 | Troyes | 4 | 29 | – | <1% | 51% | 13–18 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 2 | 28 | – | <1% | 56% | 14–18 |
We play the rest of the season 10,000 times with the model's ratings, starting from the current table (63 of 306 matches played). Each simulated season also varies every club's strength a little, because ratings are never exact. Relegated means finishing in the bottom 2. Ties are split by goal difference and then goals scored; head-to-head rules are not modelled. Likely finish is the range of places a club ends up in 80% of the simulations.
How often the predictions change
The simulations are rerun with every data refresh, about four times a day, so the tables move as soon as a round's results are in. Early in the season the ratings still lean on last season, because a result loses half its weight only after about eight months, and a club that changed a lot over the summer can look misplaced for a few weeks. As the season goes on, fewer matches remain and each round moves the numbers less.
Each league page has the week's fixtures, the current table and the match tips: the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1. Every competition the model prices is on the leagues page.
How to read this, and how we pick
The ratings behind each simulated match come from the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model, fitted on about three seasons of results and explained on the methodology page. It uses scores only, so a new coach, an injury crisis or a January signing reaches the numbers only through results.
Bookmakers sell the title and relegation as outright bets. Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance, so a 25% title chance is worth odds of 4.0. A season-long bet ties up the stake for months, and any bet can lose. The site is for adults aged 18+ only; the responsible gambling page lists the limits you can set.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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Frequently asked questions
How is the Premier League table prediction made?
We take the current Premier League table, play every remaining fixture 10,000 times with the model's team ratings, and count how often each club finishes first, in the top four and in the bottom three. Projected points is the average over all those simulated seasons.
What are the Premier League probabilities on this page?
For each club, the chance of winning the title, of finishing in the top four and of going down, with projected points and the range of places it is likely to finish in. The probabilities for single matches are on the Premier League predictions page.
Is this a Serie A table predictor where I can enter my own results?
No. The simulation runs on its own from the real table and the model's ratings, and it reruns with each data refresh. It shows what the model expects, not a scenario you set.
Why does a club with fewer points sit above one with more?
The rows are ordered by projected points, which add the points the model expects from the remaining fixtures to the points already won. A club with a stronger rating or an easier run-in can rank above a club that leads the real table today.
Do you have table predictions for other leagues?
Not yet. The season simulation runs for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1. Every other competition the model prices is listed on the leagues page, with its matches in the daily tables.
Are bookmaker odds used in the table predictions?
No. The match tips blend the model with bookmaker odds where they are available, but the season simulation uses the model's ratings alone.