Home team to win to nil meaning: the home side must win and concede nothing, with the scores that settle it

Home team to win to nil is two bets in one selection: the home side has to win the match, and the away side has to finish without a goal. If either part fails, the bet loses. A 1-0, 2-0 or 5-0 home win pays; a 2-1 home win does not, and neither does a 0-0. Away team to win to nil is the same bet for the visitors. This page settles both on fixed scores, separates win to nil from a clean sheet and from NG, explains why it pays more than the plain win, and shows how often it happened in our data. Betting is for adults aged 18+ only.

Two conditions on one selection

The result is read after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. First check the winner, then check the losing side's goals. The table shows how common scores settle the four related bets.

Final score	Home win to nil	Away win to nil	Home clean sheet	Away clean sheet
1-0	wins	loses	wins	loses
3-0	wins	loses	wins	loses
2-1	loses	loses	loses	loses
0-0	loses	loses	wins	wins
1-1	loses	loses	loses	loses
0-2	loses	wins	loses	wins

The 2-1 row is the painful one. The home team wins, the bettor watches a comfortable lead for 85 minutes, and a late consolation goal from the away side turns a winning slip into a losing one. An own goal by the home side counts as an away goal for this purpose, so it ends a home win to nil just as surely.

Away team to win to nil

Away team to win to nil follows the same rule from the other side. The visitors must win, and the home team must not score. 0-1, 0-2 and 0-4 win the bet. 1-2 and 1-3 lose it, and so does any draw. Because away sides win less often than home sides, this selection usually pays more than its home counterpart, though for a strong team visiting a weak one it can still be short.

Some apps word it by team name, such as "Team A to win to nil", rather than home or away. It is the same market; just confirm which side you have picked.

Win to nil against a clean sheet

A clean sheet bet asks only whether the team concedes nothing. The result does not matter, so a 0-0 is a clean sheet for both teams. Win to nil removes the draw: it is the clean sheet with the goalless draw taken out. In our data the home side kept a clean sheet in about 33% of matches, and 8% of all matches finished 0-0, which leaves about 25% for home wins to nil.

That gap is the reason to choose carefully between the two. If you expect a tight, goalless kind of match, a clean sheet covers it and win to nil does not. If you expect the home side to win and keep the away side quiet, win to nil pays more for the same view.

Win to nil, NG and the correct scores

Home win to nil and the combined selection 1 and NG settle on exactly the same scores, because a home team that wins has scored, so NG can only come from the away side. The combined markets are covered on the GG/NG meaning page. NG on its own is broader: it also pays on a 0-0 and on an away win to nil.

Win to nil can also be read as a bundle of correct scores: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 and every bigger home win with a zero. In the home wins to nil in our data, 1-0 made up about 44%, 2-0 about 29%, 3-0 about 16%, and 4-0 or more the remaining 11% or so. Most wins to nil are narrow. Backing a single score such as 1-0 pays much more but covers less than half of the outcomes you want.

Why win to nil pays more than the plain win

Every win to nil is a win, but not every win is a win to nil, so its chance is always lower than the chance of the win and its price always higher. How much lower depends on the opponent's attack.

Across the 43,184 finished matches in our data from July 2023 to October 2026, in the competitions this site covers, the home side won about 44% of matches and won to nil about 25%. So a little over half of all home wins, about 56%, came without conceding. Away sides won about 30% of matches and won to nil about 16%, about 53% of their wins.

Take a home favourite rated 60% to win. If its wins were split like the average, about 55% of them to nil, the chance of a home win to nil would be about 33% and the fair odds about 3.0, against about 1.67 for the plain win. Fair odds are one divided by the probability, with no bookmaker margin added. Against an opponent that rarely scores, the share of wins to nil is higher and so is the chance; against one that nearly always gets a goal, it is lower.

How often it happened in different leagues

League scoring levels move the numbers a long way. In the big five European leagues, home wins to nil came in about 22% of matches, and about half of home wins were to nil. In the domestic leagues of Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia and South Africa taken together, home wins to nil came in about 32% of matches, and about two home wins in three were to nil. Goalless draws were also more common there, about 14% of matches against about 6% in the big five, which is another reason clean sheets were frequent.

A league average is only a starting point. What decides a single match is the two teams in it.

Working out the chance from our tables

The site publishes no win to nil tips and no win to nil probability. You can still get close. Each match prediction page lists the five likeliest scores of the fixture with their probabilities. Add the 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 among them and you have a floor for a home win to nil, since bigger scores such as 4-0 are left out. The correct score prediction page shows the likeliest score of every rated match, a quick way to spot fixtures where a home win with a zero tops the list.

The both teams to score page lists matches where the model rates NG at 62% or more, and the home win predictions page lists home sides at 55% or more. A match on both lists is worth a look for a win to nil, but do not multiply the two chances: the conditions are linked, and the product is not the probability of both. The correct score figures are the cleaner guide.

What the numbers cannot see

The ratings behind those tables are fitted on scores alone. They do not know that the home team's first-choice goalkeeper is injured, that the away side has a new striker, or that a favourite leading 2-0 will rest players and invite pressure. A single late goal decides this market, so those details carry more weight here than in the plain match result.

Win to nil with a clear head

Win to nil needs two things to go right, and the second can fail in the last minute of a match you have already won. Expect losing slips even on strong favourites, compare the app's price with your own estimate of the chance, and keep stakes small. Any bet can lose. Betting is for adults aged 18+ only; the responsible gambling page explains how to set a limit before you need one.