Scottish Premiership
Aberdeen vs Falkirk prediction: Scottish Premiership, Wednesday 28 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Aberdeen
Falkirk
- Aberdeen
- 44%Megapari 1.95
- Draw
- 27%Megapari 3.55
- Falkirk
- 29%Megapari 3.63
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.3–1.2 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Aberdeen host Falkirk in the Scottish Premiership on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Pittodrie (Aberdeen). Aberdeen are 7th in the table with 11 points from 9 games; Falkirk are 9th with 9.
Who will win Aberdeen vs Falkirk?
There is little to separate the sides: Aberdeen 44%, the draw 27%, Falkirk 29%. Megapari's 1.95 on Aberdeen is shorter than our fair price of 2.29: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen to win | 44% | 2.29 | 1.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | 3.55 |
| Falkirk to win | 29% | 3.44 | 3.63 |
| Aberdeen or draw | 71% | 1.41 | 1.26 |
| Draw or Falkirk | 56% | 1.78 | 1.80 |
| Aberdeen or Falkirk | 73% | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | 1.87 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.88 | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.13 | 2.01 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Aberdeen vs Falkirk
Expected goals are 1.3 for Aberdeen and 1.2 for Falkirk, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.50 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.54 |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 11.29 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
Form: Aberdeen and Falkirk in their last five
Aberdeen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Falkirk have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Aberdeen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | St. Mirren (home)Scottish Premiership | 3-1 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | St. Johnstone (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-1 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Hibernian (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Motherwell (away)Scottish Premiership | 4-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Kilmarnock (home)Scottish Premiership | 0-0 | D |
Falkirk: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | Hibernian (away)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Dundee (home)Scottish Premiership | 1-2 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | St. Johnstone (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Heart of Midlothian (home)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Dundee United (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
Aberdeen vs Falkirk head to head
In their last three meetings in our data, Aberdeen won none, Falkirk won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 14 March 2026, finished Aberdeen 1–1 Falkirk.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Aberdeen – FalkirkScottish Premiership | 1-1 |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Falkirk – AberdeenScottish Premiership | 1-0 |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Aberdeen – FalkirkScottish Premiership | 0-1 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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