AC Milan vs Bologna prediction: Serie A, Wednesday 28 October

AC Milan host Bologna in Serie A on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 20:30 EAT. The match is played at Giuseppe Meazza (Milan). AC Milan are 4th in the table with 15 points from 7 games; Bologna are 15th with 5.

Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?

AC Milan are favourites, though not by much: 54% to win, 25% for the draw and 21% for Bologna. Megapari's 1.65 on AC Milan is shorter than our fair price of 1.84: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 20:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in AC Milan vs Bologna

Expected goals are 1.5 for AC Milan and 1.0 for Bologna, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.

AC Milan vs Bologna correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: AC Milan and Bologna in their last five

AC Milan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Bologna have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

AC Milan: last five matches

Bologna: last five matches

AC Milan vs Bologna head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, AC Milan won 3, Bologna won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 3 February 2026, finished Bologna 0–3 AC Milan.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.