UEFA Europa League
AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
AC Milan host Ferencvarosi in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at Giuseppe Meazza (Milan). AC Milan are 24th in the table with 3 points from 3 games; Ferencvarosi are 4th with 9.
Who will win AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi?
AC Milan are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 22% for the draw and 19% for Ferencvarosi. Megapari's 1.34 on AC Milan is shorter than our fair price of 1.71: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: AC Milan to win (58%) and AC Milan or draw (81%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan to win Tip | 58% | 1.71 | 1.34 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | 5.43 |
| Ferencvarosi to win | 19% | 5.16 | 9.90 |
| AC Milan or draw Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.07 |
| Draw or Ferencvarosi | 42% | 2.40 | 3.44 |
| AC Milan or Ferencvarosi | 78% | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.77 | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.31 | 2.48 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.91 | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.10 | 1.89 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi
Expected goals are 1.5 for AC Milan and 1.2 for Ferencvarosi, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.85 |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | 10.26 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.95 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.84 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.35 |
Form: AC Milan and Ferencvarosi in their last five
AC Milan have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Ferencvarosi are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 13 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
AC Milan: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | Bologna (home)Serie A | 2-4 | L |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Udinese (away)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Bournemouth (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Atalanta (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg (away)UEFA Europa League | 4-0 | W |
Ferencvarosi: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | MTK Budapest (home)Hungarian NB I | 5-0 | W |
| 22 Oct 2026 | S.C.U. Torreense (home)UEFA Europa League | 4-1 | W |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Kisvarda (away)Hungarian NB I | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Viktoria Plzeň (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Debreceni VSC (home)Hungarian NB I | 1-1 | D |
AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi head to head
AC Milan and Ferencvarosi have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on AC Milan has shortened from 1.44 to 1.34 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan to win | 1.44 | 1.34 ↓ |
| Draw | 5.01 | 5.43 ↑ |
| Ferencvarosi to win | 7.31 | 9.90 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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