AEK Athens vs Real Madrid prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 4 November

AEK Athens host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at Agia Sophia Stadium (Athens). AEK Athens are 29th in the table with 3 points from 3 games; Real Madrid are 4th with 9.

Who will win AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?

Real Madrid are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 20% for the draw and 22% for AEK Athens. Megapari's 1.37 on Real Madrid is shorter than our fair price of 1.73: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Real Madrid to win (58%), over 1.5 goals (80%), over 2.5 goals (64%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 12:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in AEK Athens vs Real Madrid

Goals are expected: 1.5 for AEK Athens and 1.7 for Real Madrid, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: AEK Athens and Real Madrid in their last five

AEK Athens have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Real Madrid have won all of their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. The results cover every competition in our data.

AEK Athens: last five matches

Real Madrid: last five matches

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid head to head

AEK Athens and Real Madrid have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Real Madrid has shortened from 1.41 to 1.37 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.30 to 1.35, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.