Atalanta vs Parma prediction: Serie A, Monday 2 November

Atalanta host Parma in Serie A on Monday 2 November, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at New Balance Arena (Bergamo). Atalanta are 11th in the table with 10 points from 8 games; Parma are 19th with 4.

Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?

The model makes Atalanta clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 22% and Parma at 13%. Megapari's 1.50 on Atalanta is shorter than our fair price of 1.56: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Atalanta to win (64%) and Atalanta or draw (87%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 27 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Atalanta vs Parma

Expected goals are 1.7 for Atalanta and 0.7 for Parma, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.

Atalanta vs Parma correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 15%, ahead of 2-0 (14%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: Atalanta and Parma in their last five

Atalanta have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Parma have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -7. The results cover every competition in our data.

Atalanta: last five matches

Parma: last five matches

Atalanta vs Parma head to head

In their last three meetings in our data, Atalanta won 2, Parma won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 25 January 2026, finished Atalanta 4–0 Parma.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Atalanta has drifted from 1.46 to 1.50 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.77 to 1.79, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.