Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad prediction: LaLiga, Sunday 1 November

Athletic Bilbao host Real Sociedad in LaLiga on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at San Mames (Bilbao). Athletic Bilbao are 8th in the table with 12 points from 9 games; Real Sociedad are 5th with 19.

Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?

Athletic Bilbao are favourites, though not by much: 46% to win, 26% for the draw and 28% for Real Sociedad. Megapari's 2.06 on Athletic Bilbao is shorter than our fair price of 2.15: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 25 October 2026, 23:49 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad

Expected goals are 1.6 for Athletic Bilbao and 1.3 for Real Sociedad, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad in their last five

Athletic Bilbao have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Real Sociedad are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 17 goals scored and 6 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Athletic Bilbao: last five matches

Real Sociedad: last five matches

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Athletic Bilbao won 2, Real Sociedad won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 1 February 2026, finished Athletic Bilbao 1–1 Real Sociedad.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Athletic Bilbao has drifted from 1.88 to 2.06 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.92 to 1.94, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.