Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 3 November

Atlético Madrid host Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 3 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Metropolitano (Madrid). Atlético Madrid are 16th in the table with 4 points from 3 games; Bayern Munich are 14th with 5.

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

Bayern Munich are favourites, though not by much: 47% to win, 23% for the draw and 31% for Atlético Madrid. Megapari's 2.04 on Bayern Munich is shorter than our fair price of 2.14: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (84%), over 2.5 goals (67%) and both teams to score: yes (65%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 27 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich

Goals are expected: 1.7 for Atlético Madrid and 2.0 for Bayern Munich, 3.8 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 67%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 65%.

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 9%, ahead of 1-2 (8%) and 2-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.

Form: Atlético Madrid and Bayern Munich in their last five

Atlético Madrid are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 7 goals scored and 2 conceded. Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 16 goals scored and 9 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Atlético Madrid: last five matches

Bayern Munich: last five matches

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich head to head

Atlético Madrid and Bayern Munich have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Bayern Munich has shortened from 2.12 to 2.04 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.42 to 1.39, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.