Augsburg vs Freiburg prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 31 October

Augsburg host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 17:30 EAT. The match is played at WWK Arena (Augsburg). Augsburg are 9th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Freiburg are 3rd with 13.

Who will win Augsburg vs Freiburg?

There is little to separate the sides: Augsburg 35%, the draw 24%, Freiburg 41%. Megapari's 2.25 on Freiburg is shorter than our fair price of 2.44: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%), over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 24 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Augsburg vs Freiburg

Goals are expected: 1.6 for Augsburg and 1.6 for Freiburg, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.

Augsburg vs Freiburg correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 (8%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Augsburg and Freiburg in their last five

Augsburg have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 10 in that run. Freiburg have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Augsburg: last five matches

Freiburg: last five matches

Augsburg vs Freiburg head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Augsburg won 2, Freiburg won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 18 January 2026, finished Augsburg 2–2 Freiburg.

How the odds have moved

Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.44 to 1.48, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.