AZ vs Juventus prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November

AZ host Juventus in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at AFAS (Alkmaar). AZ are 10th in the table with 6 points from 3 games; Juventus are 7th with 7.

Who will win AZ vs Juventus?

There is little to separate the sides: AZ 32%, the draw 26%, Juventus 42%. Megapari's 2.03 on Juventus is shorter than our fair price of 2.41: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in AZ vs Juventus

Expected goals are 1.4 for AZ and 1.3 for Juventus, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

AZ vs Juventus correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: AZ and Juventus in their last five

AZ have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Juventus have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

AZ: last five matches

Juventus: last five matches

AZ vs Juventus head to head

AZ and Juventus have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Juventus has shortened from 2.12 to 2.03 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.91 to 1.84, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.