Tanzanian Premier League
Azam vs Mbeya City prediction: Tanzanian Premier League, Wednesday 28 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Azam
Mbeya City
- Azam
- 78%
- Draw
- 17%
- Mbeya City
- 5%
- Azam to win78% · fair 1.28
- Azam or draw95% · fair 1.05
xG 2.1–0.4 · likeliest 2-0 (18%)
Azam host Mbeya City in the Tanzanian Premier League on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 18:30 EAT. Azam are 3rd in the table with 17 points from 8 games; Mbeya City are 9th with 10.
Who will win Azam vs Mbeya City?
The model makes Azam clear favourites at 78%, with the draw at 17% and Mbeya City at 5%.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Azam to win (78%) and Azam or draw (95%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Azam to win Tip | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.02 |
| Mbeya City to win | 5% | 19.42 |
| Azam or draw Tip | 95% | 1.05 |
| Draw or Mbeya City | 22% | 4.60 |
| Azam or Mbeya City | 83% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | 2.41 |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | 1.71 |
Goals in Azam vs Mbeya City
Expected goals are 2.1 for Azam and 0.4 for Mbeya City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Mbeya City may struggle to score at all: both teams to score is only 42%.
Azam vs Mbeya City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 18%, ahead of 1-0 (17%) and 3-0 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 5 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 18.3% | 5.46 |
| 1-0 | 16.9% | 5.93 |
| 3-0 | 13.1% | 7.65 |
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 12.11 |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | 14.16 |
Form: Azam and Mbeya City in their last five
Azam have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Mbeya City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Azam: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | ZED (away)CAF Confederation Cup | 1-1 | D |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Coastal Union (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Simba (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Namungo (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Kagera Sugar (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-0 | W |
Mbeya City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | JKT Tanzania (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Kagera Sugar (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Polisi Tanzania (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 4 Sep 2026 | TRA United (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Singida Fountain Gate (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-0 | W |
Azam vs Mbeya City head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Azam won 1, Mbeya City won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 9 April 2026, finished Mbeya City 0–0 Azam.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | Mbeya City – AzamTanzanian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Azam – Mbeya CityTanzanian Premier League | 2-0 |
The rest of the Tanzanian Premier League is on our NBC Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT