Barcelona vs Aston Villa prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 3 November

Barcelona host Aston Villa in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 3 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Camp Nou (Barcelona). Barcelona are 8th in the table with 6 points from 3 games; Aston Villa are 2nd with 9.

Who will win Barcelona vs Aston Villa?

The model makes Barcelona clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 16% and Aston Villa at 15%. Megapari's 1.27 on Barcelona is shorter than our fair price of 1.45: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Barcelona to win (69%), Barcelona or draw (85%), over 1.5 goals (87%), over 2.5 goals (74%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 27 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Barcelona vs Aston Villa

Goals are expected: 2.6 for Barcelona and 1.6 for Aston Villa, 4.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 74%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.

Barcelona vs Aston Villa correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 8%, ahead of 3-1 (7%) and 1-1 (6%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.

Form: Barcelona and Aston Villa in their last five

Barcelona have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Aston Villa are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 14 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Barcelona: last five matches

Aston Villa: last five matches

Barcelona vs Aston Villa head to head

Barcelona and Aston Villa have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Barcelona has shortened from 1.29 to 1.27 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.21 to 1.21, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.