Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 31 October

Barcelona host Deportivo Alavés in LaLiga on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Camp Nou (Barcelona). Barcelona are 1st in the table with 27 points from 9 games; Deportivo Alavés are 7th with 12.

Who will win Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés?

The model makes Barcelona clear favourites at 85%, with the draw at 10% and Deportivo Alavés at 5%. Megapari's 1.14 on Barcelona is shorter than our fair price of 1.17: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Barcelona to win (85%), Barcelona or draw (95%), over 1.5 goals (86%) and over 2.5 goals (72%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 24 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés

Goals are expected: 3.3 for Barcelona and 0.8 for Deportivo Alavés, 4.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 72%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.

Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 3-0 at 10%, ahead of 2-0 (9%) and 4-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Barcelona and Deportivo Alavés in their last five

Barcelona have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +9. Deportivo Alavés have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Barcelona: last five matches

Deportivo Alavés: last five matches

Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Barcelona won 5, Deportivo Alavés won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 13 May 2026, finished Deportivo Alavés 1–0 Barcelona.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Barcelona has drifted from 1.14 to 1.14 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.20 to 1.26, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.