Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 31 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
- Bayern Munich
- 70%Megapari 1.36
- Draw
- 16%Megapari 6.47
- Borussia Dortmund
- 14%Megapari 7.85
- Bayern Munich to win70% · fair 1.43Bet 1.36
- Bayern Munich or draw86% · fair 1.16Bet 1.10
- Over 1.5 goals85% · fair 1.17Bet 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals72% · fair 1.38
- Both teams to score: yes63% · fair 1.58
xG 2.7–1.2 · likeliest 2-1 (9%)
Bayern Munich host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 20:30 EAT. The match is played at Allianz Arena (Munich). Bayern Munich are 1st in the table with 14 points from 6 games; Borussia Dortmund are 2nd with 14.
Who will win Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model makes Bayern Munich clear favourites at 70%, with the draw at 16% and Borussia Dortmund at 14%. Megapari's 1.36 on Bayern Munich is shorter than our fair price of 1.43: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Bayern Munich to win (70%), Bayern Munich or draw (86%), over 1.5 goals (85%), over 2.5 goals (72%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win Tip | 70% | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.17 | 6.47 |
| Borussia Dortmund to win | 14% | 7.23 | 7.85 |
| Bayern Munich or draw Tip | 86% | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Draw or Borussia Dortmund | 30% | 3.33 | 3.42 |
| Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund | 84% | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 85% | 1.17 | 1.02 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 72% | 1.38 | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28% | 3.60 | 4.13 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | 2.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 63% | 1.58 | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | 2.73 | 2.81 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 24 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
Goals are expected: 2.7 for Bayern Munich and 1.2 for Borussia Dortmund, 3.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 72%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 3-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.33 |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.66 |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 14.06 |
| 1-1 | 6.9% | 14.47 |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 15.72 |
Form: Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in their last five
Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 20 goals scored and 8 conceded. Borussia Dortmund have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Bayern Munich: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | Arsenal (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-2 | D |
| 17 Oct 2026 | RB Leipzig (home)Bundesliga | 6-1 | W |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Viking (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-3 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (home)Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
Borussia Dortmund: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (home)Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Sabah (away)UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Union Berlin (away)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Bodø/Glimt (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 9 Oct 2026 | SV Werder Bremen (home)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Bayern Munich won 3, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 28 February 2026, finished Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayern Munich.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Borussia Dortmund – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 2-3 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Bayern Munich – Borussia DortmundBundesliga | 2-1 |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Bayern Munich – Borussia DortmundBundesliga | 2-2 |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Borussia Dortmund – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 1-1 |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Bayern Munich – Borussia DortmundBundesliga | 0-2 |
| 4 Nov 2023 | Borussia Dortmund – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 0-4 |
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on Bayern Munich has shortened from 1.37 to 1.36 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.18 to 1.21, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win | 1.37 | 1.36 ↓ |
| Draw | 6.40 | 6.47 ↑ |
| Borussia Dortmund to win | 7.85 | 7.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.21 ↑ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.88 | 4.13 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.40 | 1.39 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.77 | 2.81 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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