Benfica vs Lech Poznań prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November

Benfica host Lech Poznań in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Estadio da Luz (Lisbon). Benfica are 1st in the table with 9 points from 3 games; Lech Poznań are 32nd with 1.

Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?

The model makes Benfica clear favourites at 77%, with the draw at 15% and Lech Poznań at 8%. Megapari's 1.25 on Benfica is shorter than our fair price of 1.30: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Benfica to win (77%), Benfica or draw (92%), over 1.5 goals (86%) and over 2.5 goals (68%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Benfica vs Lech Poznań

Goals are expected: 2.9 for Benfica and 1.0 for Lech Poznań, 4.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 68%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

Benfica vs Lech Poznań correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 8%, ahead of 2-0 (8%) and 3-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.

Form: Benfica and Lech Poznań in their last five

Benfica have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. Lech Poznań have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.

Benfica: last five matches

Lech Poznań: last five matches

Benfica vs Lech Poznań head to head

Benfica and Lech Poznań have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Benfica has shortened from 1.26 to 1.25 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.40 to 1.39, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.