Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction: Premier League, Saturday 31 October

Bournemouth host Leeds in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 18:00 EAT. The match is played at Vitality (Bournemouth). Bournemouth are 16th in the table with 6 points from 7 games; Leeds are 8th with 10.

Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?

There is little to separate the sides: Bournemouth 43%, the draw 28%, Leeds 29%. Megapari's 2.24 on Bournemouth sits right on our fair price of 2.31.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 24 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Bournemouth vs Leeds

Expected goals are 1.4 for Bournemouth and 1.1 for Leeds, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Bournemouth vs Leeds correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Bournemouth and Leeds in their last five

Bournemouth have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Leeds have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Bournemouth: last five matches

Leeds: last five matches

Bournemouth vs Leeds head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Bournemouth won none, Leeds won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 22 April 2026, finished Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Bournemouth has shortened from 2.34 to 2.24 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.90 to 1.92, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.