Ligue 1
Brest vs Lyon prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 8 November
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Brest
Lyon
- Brest
- 31%Megapari 3.04
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 3.80
- Lyon
- 44%Megapari 2.36
- Both teams to score: yes58% · fair 1.72Bet 1.56
xG 1.3–1.7 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Brest host Lyon in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 19:15 EAT. The match is played at Stade Francis-Le Ble (Brest). Brest are 13th in the table with 9 points from 8 games; Lyon are 5th with 14.
Who will win Brest vs Lyon?
There is little to separate the sides: Brest 31%, the draw 26%, Lyon 44%. Megapari's 2.36 on Lyon sits right on our fair price of 2.30.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (58%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest to win | 31% | 3.23 | 3.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | 3.80 |
| Lyon to win | 44% | 2.30 | 2.36 |
| Brest or draw | 56% | 1.77 | 1.66 |
| Draw or Lyon | 69% | 1.45 | 1.44 |
| Brest or Lyon | 74% | 1.34 | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | 2.23 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | 1.46 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 58% | 1.72 | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.38 | 2.30 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 19:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Brest vs Lyon
Expected goals are 1.3 for Brest and 1.7 for Lyon, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.
Brest vs Lyon correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.55 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.78 |
| 0-1 | 8.0% | 12.58 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 13.74 |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 14.10 |
Form: Brest and Lyon in their last five
Brest have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Lyon have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Brest: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | Nice (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Lille (away)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Angers SCO (home)Ligue 1 | 5-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | AJ Auxerre (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | PSG (home)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
Lyon: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | PSG (away)Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| 22 Oct 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Nice (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Crystal Palace (home)UEFA Europa League | 3-2 | W |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Lens (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
Brest vs Lyon head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Brest won 1, Lyon won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 18 January 2026, finished Lyon 2–1 Brest.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Lyon – BrestLigue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Brest – LyonLigue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Lyon – BrestLigue 1 | 2-1 |
| 11 Jan 2025 | Brest – LyonLigue 1 | 2-1 |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Lyon – BrestLigue 1 | 4-3 |
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on Lyon has shortened from 2.58 to 2.36 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.77 to 1.76, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brest to win | 2.79 | 3.04 ↑ |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.80 ↑ |
| Lyon to win | 2.58 | 2.36 ↓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.76 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.23 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.58 | 1.56 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.26 | 2.30 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT