Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November

Celta Vigo host Union Saint-Gilloise in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Balaidos (Vigo). Celta Vigo are 25th in the table with 3 points from 3 games; Union Saint-Gilloise are 6th with 7.

Who will win Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

There is little to separate the sides: Celta Vigo 37%, the draw 27%, Union Saint-Gilloise 36%. Megapari's 2.11 on Celta Vigo is shorter than our fair price of 2.69: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise

Expected goals are 1.1 for Celta Vigo and 1.4 for Union Saint-Gilloise, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 0-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Celta Vigo and Union Saint-Gilloise in their last five

Celta Vigo have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Union Saint-Gilloise are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 13 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Celta Vigo: last five matches

Union Saint-Gilloise: last five matches

Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise head to head

Celta Vigo and Union Saint-Gilloise have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Celta Vigo has drifted from 1.84 to 2.11 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.