Chelsea vs Man United prediction: Premier League, Saturday 31 October

Chelsea host Man United in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 15:30 EAT. The match is played at Stamford Bridge (London). Chelsea are 4th in the table with 13 points from 7 games; Man United are 13th with 7.

Who will win Chelsea vs Man United?

Chelsea are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 24% for the draw and 27% for Man United. Megapari's 1.90 on Chelsea is shorter than our fair price of 2.02: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (82%), over 2.5 goals (62%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 24 October 2026, 17:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Chelsea vs Man United

Goals are expected: 1.9 for Chelsea and 1.5 for Man United, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.

Chelsea vs Man United correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Chelsea and Man United in their last five

Chelsea have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Man United have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Chelsea: last five matches

Man United: last five matches

Chelsea vs Man United head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Chelsea won 2, Man United won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 18 April 2026, finished Chelsea 0–1 Man United.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Chelsea has shortened from 2.15 to 1.90 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.49 to 1.51, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.