Tanzanian Premier League
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar prediction: Tanzanian Premier League, Wednesday 28 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Coastal Union
Kagera Sugar
- Coastal Union
- 58%
- Draw
- 25%
- Kagera Sugar
- 17%
- Coastal Union to win58% · fair 1.74
- Coastal Union or draw83% · fair 1.21
xG 1.6–0.8 · likeliest 1-0 (14%)
Coastal Union host Kagera Sugar in the Tanzanian Premier League on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 21:00 EAT. Coastal Union are 10th in the table with 10 points from 8 games; Kagera Sugar are 14th with 6.
Who will win Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar?
Coastal Union are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 25% for the draw and 17% for Kagera Sugar.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Coastal Union to win (58%) and Coastal Union or draw (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Union to win Tip | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 |
| Kagera Sugar to win | 17% | 5.82 |
| Coastal Union or draw Tip | 83% | 1.21 |
| Draw or Kagera Sugar | 42% | 2.36 |
| Coastal Union or Kagera Sugar | 75% | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | 2.02 |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | 1.98 |
Goals in Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar
Expected goals are 1.6 for Coastal Union and 0.8 for Kagera Sugar, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 2-0 (12%) and 1-1 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.0% | 7.15 |
| 2-0 | 11.9% | 8.38 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.48 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.68 |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | 10.87 |
Form: Coastal Union and Kagera Sugar in their last five
Coastal Union have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Kagera Sugar have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Coastal Union: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2026 | Singida Black Stars (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Azam (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | JKT Tanzania (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Polisi Tanzania (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Simba (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-1 | L |
Kagera Sugar: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | Polisi Tanzania (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Mbeya City (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 3-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Singida Fountain Gate (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Azam (home)Tanzanian Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Mashujaa (away)Tanzanian Premier League | 1-2 | L |
Coastal Union vs Kagera Sugar head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Coastal Union won 3, Kagera Sugar won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 3 April 2025, finished Kagera Sugar 2–1 Coastal Union.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2025 | Kagera Sugar – Coastal UnionTanzanian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 29 Oct 2024 | Coastal Union – Kagera SugarTanzanian Premier League | 1-0 |
| 21 May 2024 | Kagera Sugar – Coastal UnionTanzanian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 9 Dec 2023 | Coastal Union – Kagera SugarTanzanian Premier League | 1-0 |
The rest of the Tanzanian Premier League is on our NBC Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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