Dundee vs Kilmarnock prediction: Scottish Premiership, Wednesday 28 October

Dundee host Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premiership on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Dens Park (Dundee). Dundee are 4th in the table with 14 points from 9 games; Kilmarnock are 11th with 8.

Who will win Dundee vs Kilmarnock?

Dundee are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 24% for the draw and 25% for Kilmarnock. Megapari's 1.92 on Dundee is shorter than our fair price of 1.99: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Dundee vs Kilmarnock

Expected goals are 1.9 for Dundee and 1.3 for Kilmarnock, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

Dundee vs Kilmarnock correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Dundee and Kilmarnock in their last five

Dundee have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Kilmarnock have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

Dundee: last five matches

Kilmarnock: last five matches

Dundee vs Kilmarnock head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Dundee won 1, Kilmarnock won 2 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 12 May 2026, finished Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.