Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 4 November

Fenerbahçe host Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul). Fenerbahçe are 31st in the table with 2 points from 3 games; Liverpool are 3rd with 9.

Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?

Liverpool are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 22% for the draw and 25% for Fenerbahçe. Megapari's 1.69 on Liverpool is shorter than our fair price of 1.89: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (82%), over 2.5 goals (62%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 12:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool

Goals are expected: 1.5 for Fenerbahçe and 1.9 for Liverpool, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Fenerbahçe and Liverpool in their last five

Fenerbahçe have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Liverpool have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Fenerbahçe: last five matches

Liverpool: last five matches

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool head to head

Fenerbahçe and Liverpool have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Liverpool has shortened from 1.94 to 1.69 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.72 to 1.50, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.