Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction: Serie A, Thursday 29 October

Fiorentina host Atalanta in Serie A on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Artemio Franchi (Florence). Fiorentina are 18th in the table with 4 points from 7 games; Atalanta are 11th with 9.

Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

There is little to separate the sides: Fiorentina 34%, the draw 27%, Atalanta 40%. Megapari pays 3.06 on Atalanta, more than our fair price of 2.51.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 23 October 2026, 17:03 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Expected goals are 1.1 for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Atalanta, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Fiorentina vs Atalanta correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Fiorentina and Atalanta in their last five

Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Atalanta have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Fiorentina: last five matches

Atalanta: last five matches

Fiorentina vs Atalanta head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Fiorentina won 2, Atalanta won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 22 May 2026, finished Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.