Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction: Bundesliga, Sunday 8 November

Freiburg host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at Europa Park (Freiburg im Breisgau). Freiburg are 3rd in the table with 16 points from 8 games; Union Berlin are 17th with 6.

Who will win Freiburg vs Union Berlin?

The model makes Freiburg clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 20% and Union Berlin at 16%. Megapari's 1.55 on Freiburg sits right on our fair price of 1.57.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Freiburg to win (64%), Freiburg or draw (84%) and over 1.5 goals (79%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 19:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Freiburg vs Union Berlin

Goals are expected: 2.1 for Freiburg and 1.0 for Union Berlin, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Freiburg vs Union Berlin correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Freiburg and Union Berlin in their last five

Freiburg have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Union Berlin have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -8. The results cover every competition in our data.

Freiburg: last five matches

Union Berlin: last five matches

Freiburg vs Union Berlin head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Freiburg won none, Union Berlin won 3 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 15 March 2026, finished Freiburg 0–1 Union Berlin.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Freiburg has shortened from 1.60 to 1.55 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.51 to 1.55, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.