Frosinone vs US Lecce prediction: Serie A, Thursday 29 October

Frosinone host US Lecce in Serie A on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 20:30 EAT. The match is played at Stadio Benito Stirpe (Frosinone). Frosinone are 6th in the table with 13 points from 7 games; US Lecce are 12th with 9.

Who will win Frosinone vs US Lecce?

Frosinone are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 27% for the draw and 25% for US Lecce. Megapari's 1.97 on Frosinone is shorter than our fair price of 2.07: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (76%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 23 October 2026, 17:03 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Frosinone vs US Lecce

Expected goals are 1.4 for Frosinone and 0.9 for US Lecce, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Frosinone vs US Lecce correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (13%) and 0-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Frosinone and US Lecce in their last five

Frosinone have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. US Lecce have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Frosinone: last five matches

US Lecce: last five matches

Frosinone vs US Lecce head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Frosinone won none, US Lecce won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 3 March 2024, finished Frosinone 1–1 US Lecce.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Frosinone has drifted from 1.93 to 1.97 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.71 to 1.56, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.