Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe prediction: Süper Lig, Monday 26 October

Galatasaray host Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig on Monday 26 October, kick-off 21:30 EAT. The match is played at RAMS Park (İstanbul). Galatasaray are 1st in the table with 19 points from 8 games; Fenerbahçe are 3rd with 16.

Who will win Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?

There is little to separate the sides: Galatasaray 44%, the draw 24%, Fenerbahçe 32%. Megapari's 2.33 on Galatasaray sits right on our fair price of 2.27.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (82%), over 2.5 goals (62%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 05:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe

Goals are expected: 1.9 for Galatasaray and 1.5 for Fenerbahçe, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe in their last five

Galatasaray have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Fenerbahçe have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +8. The results cover every competition in our data.

Galatasaray: last five matches

Fenerbahçe: last five matches

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Galatasaray won 2, Fenerbahçe won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 26 April 2026, finished Galatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahçe.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Galatasaray has drifted from 2.31 to 2.33 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.68 to 1.45, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.