Hamburger SV vs Gladbach prediction: Bundesliga, Friday 6 November

Hamburger SV host Gladbach in the Bundesliga on Friday 6 November, kick-off 22:30 EAT. The match is played at Volksparkstadion (Hamburg). Hamburger SV are 11th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Gladbach are 18th with 3.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs Gladbach?

There is little to separate the sides: Hamburger SV 42%, the draw 25%, Gladbach 33%. Megapari pays 2.53 on Hamburger SV, more than our fair price of 2.38.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (78%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 31 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Hamburger SV vs Gladbach

Goals are expected: 1.7 for Hamburger SV and 1.3 for Gladbach, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Hamburger SV vs Gladbach correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Hamburger SV and Gladbach in their last five

Hamburger SV have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Gladbach have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -7. The results cover every competition in our data.

Hamburger SV: last five matches

Gladbach: last five matches

Hamburger SV vs Gladbach head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Hamburger SV won none, Gladbach won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 17 January 2026, finished Hamburger SV 0–0 Gladbach.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Hamburger SV has drifted from 2.39 to 2.53 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.56 to 1.63, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.