Uganda Premier League
Kampala City vs Lugazi prediction: Uganda Premier League, Wednesday 28 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Kampala City
Lugazi
- Kampala City
- 71%
- Draw
- 22%
- Lugazi
- 7%
- Kampala City to win71% · fair 1.42
- Kampala City or draw93% · fair 1.08
- Under 3.5 goals79% · fair 1.27
xG 1.7–0.4 · likeliest 1-0 (20%)
Kampala City host Lugazi in the Uganda Premier League on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 20:00 EAT. Kampala City are 7th in the table with 10 points from 6 games; Lugazi are 11th with 8.
Who will win Kampala City vs Lugazi?
The model makes Kampala City clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 22% and Lugazi at 7%.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Kampala City to win (71%), Kampala City or draw (93%) and under 3.5 goals (79%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kampala City to win Tip | 71% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.53 |
| Lugazi to win | 7% | 13.55 |
| Kampala City or draw Tip | 93% | 1.08 |
| Draw or Lugazi | 29% | 3.40 |
| Kampala City or Lugazi | 78% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 79% | 1.27 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | 1.69 |
Goals in Kampala City vs Lugazi
Expected goals are 1.7 for Kampala City and 0.4 for Lugazi, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 43%. Lugazi may struggle to score at all: both teams to score is only 41%.
Kampala City vs Lugazi correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 20%, ahead of 2-0 (18%) and 0-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 5 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 20.3% | 4.92 |
| 2-0 | 18.0% | 5.57 |
| 0-0 | 12.2% | 8.21 |
| 3-0 | 10.4% | 9.60 |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | 11.89 |
Form: Kampala City and Lugazi in their last five
Kampala City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Lugazi have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Kampala City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Ntugasaze (away)Uganda Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 9 Oct 2026 | URA (away)Uganda Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Kataka (home)Uganda Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Kigezi Homeboyz (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Express (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-2 | L |
Lugazi: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | Express (home)Uganda Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Oct 2026 | BUL (home)Uganda Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Maroons (away)Uganda Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Police (home)Uganda Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Entebbe UPPC (away)Uganda Premier League | 1-0 | W |
Kampala City vs Lugazi head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Kampala City won 2, Lugazi won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 14 March 2026, finished Lugazi 0–3 Kampala City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Lugazi – Kampala CityUganda Premier League | 0-3 |
| 16 Oct 2025 | Kampala City – LugaziUganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 14 May 2025 | Kampala City – LugaziUganda Premier League | 5-0 |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Lugazi – Kampala CityUganda Premier League | 1-1 |
The rest of the Uganda Premier League is on our Uganda Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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