Köln vs Leverkusen prediction: Bundesliga, Sunday 8 November

Köln host Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 17:30 EAT. The match is played at Rhein Energie (Cologne). Köln are 14th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Leverkusen are 6th with 13.

Who will win Köln vs Leverkusen?

Leverkusen are favourites, though not by much: 56% to win, 22% for the draw and 22% for Köln. Megapari's 1.75 on Leverkusen sits right on our fair price of 1.78.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Leverkusen to win (56%), over 1.5 goals (79%), over 2.5 goals (62%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 19:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Köln vs Leverkusen

Goals are expected: 1.1 for Köln and 2.0 for Leverkusen, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.

Köln vs Leverkusen correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Köln and Leverkusen in their last five

Köln have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Leverkusen have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Köln: last five matches

Leverkusen: last five matches

Köln vs Leverkusen head to head

In their last three meetings in our data, Köln won none, Leverkusen won 3 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 25 April 2026, finished Köln 1–2 Leverkusen.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Leverkusen has drifted from 1.69 to 1.75 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.38 to 1.40, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.