Serie A
Lazio vs Cagliari prediction: Serie A, Sunday 1 November
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lazio host Cagliari in Serie A on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Olimpico (Rome). Lazio are 2nd in the table with 22 points from 8 games; Cagliari are 8th with 13.
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
Lazio are favourites, though not by much: 57% to win, 26% for the draw and 18% for Cagliari. Megapari's 1.70 on Lazio is shorter than our fair price of 1.77: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Lazio to win (57%), Lazio or draw (82%) and under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio to win Tip | 57% | 1.77 | 1.70 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | 3.96 |
| Cagliari to win | 18% | 5.69 | 5.71 |
| Lazio or draw Tip | 82% | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| Draw or Cagliari | 43% | 2.30 | 2.29 |
| Lazio or Cagliari | 74% | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | 1.87 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | 2.08 | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 25 October 2026, 23:49 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lazio vs Cagliari
Expected goals are 1.5 for Lazio and 0.8 for Cagliari, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 46%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.
Lazio vs Cagliari correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 15%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.9% | 6.72 |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 2-0 | 11.9% | 8.42 |
| 0-0 | 10.7% | 9.36 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.09 |
Form: Lazio and Cagliari in their last five
Lazio are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 12 goals scored and 4 conceded. Cagliari have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lazio: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Parma (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Juventus (away)Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Monza (home)Serie A | 3-1 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Venezia (away)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | AC Milan (home)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
Cagliari: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Bologna (home)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Monza (away)Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Juventus (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Udinese (away)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Atalanta (away)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
Lazio vs Cagliari head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Lazio won 5, Cagliari won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 21 February 2026, finished Cagliari 0–0 Lazio.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Cagliari – LazioSerie A | 0-0 |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Lazio – CagliariSerie A | 2-0 |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Cagliari – LazioSerie A | 1-2 |
| 4 Nov 2024 | Lazio – CagliariSerie A | 2-1 |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Cagliari – LazioSerie A | 1-3 |
| 2 Dec 2023 | Lazio – CagliariSerie A | 1-0 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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