Ligue 1
Le Havre vs PSG prediction: Ligue 1, Friday 30 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Le Havre host PSG in Ligue 1 on Friday 30 October, kick-off 21:00 EAT. The match is played at Oceane (Le Havre). Le Havre are 18th in the table with 2 points from 7 games; PSG are 2nd with 14.
Who will win Le Havre vs PSG?
The model makes PSG clear favourites at 76%, with the draw at 15% and Le Havre at 9%. Megapari's 1.27 on PSG is shorter than our fair price of 1.31: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: PSG to win (76%), draw or PSG (91%), over 1.5 goals (79%) and over 2.5 goals (64%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre to win | 9% | 11.39 | 11.00 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.60 | 7.11 |
| PSG to win Tip | 76% | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| Le Havre or draw | 24% | 4.18 | 4.14 |
| Draw or PSG Tip | 91% | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| Le Havre or PSG | 85% | 1.18 | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 79% | 1.27 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 64% | 1.56 | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 | 3.23 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.54 | 2.01 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.88 | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.13 | 2.12 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 23 October 2026, 23:43 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Le Havre vs PSG
Goals are expected: 0.7 for Le Havre and 2.4 for PSG, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Le Havre vs PSG correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-2 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 0-3 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | 13.0% | 7.69 |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | 9.50 |
| 0-3 | 10.4% | 9.60 |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 11.03 |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
Form: Le Havre and PSG in their last five
Le Havre have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. PSG have won all of their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. The results cover every competition in our data.
Le Havre: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | AJ Auxerre (home)Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Lille (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Toulouse (away)Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Angers SCO (home)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brest (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
PSG: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | Barcelona (home)UEFA Champions League | 4-2 | W |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Strasbourg (away)Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Man City (away)UEFA Champions League | 4-2 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Le Mans (home)Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Marseille (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
Le Havre vs PSG head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Le Havre won none, PSG won 5 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 28 February 2026, finished Le Havre 0–1 PSG.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Le Havre – PSGLigue 1 | 0-1 |
| 22 Nov 2025 | PSG – Le HavreLigue 1 | 3-0 |
| 19 Apr 2025 | PSG – Le HavreLigue 1 | 2-1 |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Le Havre – PSGLigue 1 | 1-4 |
| 27 Apr 2024 | PSG – Le HavreLigue 1 | 3-3 |
| 3 Dec 2023 | Le Havre – PSGLigue 1 | 0-2 |
How the odds have moved
Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.30 to 1.34, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.34 ↑ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.14 | 3.23 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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