Lens vs Como prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 4 November

Lens host Como in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). Lens are 27th in the table with 3 points from 3 games; Como are 9th with 6.

Who will win Lens vs Como?

There is little to separate the sides: Lens 36%, the draw 25%, Como 39%. Megapari's 2.35 on Como is shorter than our fair price of 2.58: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 12:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Lens vs Como

Goals are expected: 1.6 for Lens and 1.5 for Como, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.

Lens vs Como correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Lens and Como in their last five

Lens have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Como have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +8. The results cover every competition in our data.

Lens: last five matches

Como: last five matches

Lens vs Como head to head

Lens and Como have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Como has shortened from 2.39 to 2.35 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.64 to 1.54, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.