Lens vs Marseille prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 8 November

Lens host Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). Lens are 8th in the table with 13 points from 9 games; Marseille are 9th with 12.

Who will win Lens vs Marseille?

Lens are favourites, though not by much: 47% to win, 23% for the draw and 29% for Marseille. Megapari's 2.12 on Lens sits right on our fair price of 2.11.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (63%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Lens vs Marseille

Goals are expected: 1.9 for Lens and 1.4 for Marseille, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.

Lens vs Marseille correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Lens and Marseille in their last five

Lens have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Marseille have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Lens: last five matches

Marseille: last five matches

Lens vs Marseille head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Lens won 3, Marseille won 3 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 24 January 2026, finished Marseille 3–1 Lens.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Lens has drifted from 2.06 to 2.12 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.46 to 1.46, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.