Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November

Leverkusen host Marseille in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at BayArena (Leverkusen). Leverkusen are 2nd in the table with 9 points from 3 games; Marseille are 34th with 0.

Who will win Leverkusen vs Marseille?

The model makes Leverkusen clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 20% and Marseille at 17%. Megapari's 1.46 on Leverkusen is shorter than our fair price of 1.58: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Leverkusen to win (63%), Leverkusen or draw (83%), over 1.5 goals (82%) and over 2.5 goals (63%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Leverkusen vs Marseille

Goals are expected: 2.3 for Leverkusen and 1.2 for Marseille, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Leverkusen vs Marseille correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Leverkusen and Marseille in their last five

Leverkusen have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Marseille have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Leverkusen: last five matches

Marseille: last five matches

Leverkusen vs Marseille head to head

Leverkusen and Marseille have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Leverkusen has shortened from 1.70 to 1.46 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.